2009 AUSTRALIAN OPEN AFTERTHOUGHTS - by Steve Flink
In the weeks leading up to the 2009 Australian
Open, most close followers of the game fully
expected a magnificent opening to the season.
Everything pointed to a riveting tournament for
the men. Novak Djokovic was back to defend his
crown. Roger Federer was there to restore his
authority and chase a record tying 14th Grand
Slam Championship. Andy Murray seemed poised to
collect his first major after a brilliant second
half of 2008 and an impressive start in 2009.
And last, but not least, world No. 1 Rafael
Nadal was utterly determined to prevail for the
first time at a Grand Slam event on hard courts.
With so many exhilarating possibilities, how
could we go wrong?
Quite clearly, this was one of those rare
moments when a big tournament was every bit as
good as we could have anticipated, and possibly
better. In the end, of course, it was Nadal more
than anyone else who made the Australian Open
sparkle. It was Nadal who competed for a total
of nine hours and 37 minutes in ten soul
searching sets in the semifinals and final to
garner his sixth major championship so
deservedly. It was Nadal who demonstrated once
more that no one can match his mental toughness,
his steely resolve under pressure, his
durability and unflappability through long
skirmishes against the fiercest of adversaries.
Defeating Fernando Verdasco and Roger Federer in
back to back five set contests at the end of the
fortnight was an astounding feat that even the
indefatigable Nadal might not be able to
replicate. His marathon five hours, 14 minute
confrontation with the vastly improved Verdasco
was a gripping spectacle. Verdasco had made
considerable progress across 2008, finishing the
season at No. 16 in the world after peaking
earlier in the year at No. 11. He had trained
with vigor in the off season under the guidance
of the renowned Gil Reyes, Andre Agassi’s
fitness guru. He had come into this major with a
sense of self he had never known before.
Before Verdasco arrived for his appointment in
the penultimate round with Nadal, he had raced
through the first three rounds at the cost of a
mere 12 games in nine sets, setting an Open Era
record in the process. In the round of 16, he
won a somewhat bizarre battle with Murray,
rallying admirably for a 2-6, 6-1, 1-6, 6-3, 6-4
triumph over the No. 4 seed. I thought Murray
would have a distinct advantage by having the
luxury of serving first in the final set, but
Verdasco competed honorably in that remarkable
chapter.
Serving at 2-3, Verdasco was in a serious bind.
Twice in that critical game, the 25-year-old
Spanish lefty fought off break points, one with
a bold ace down the T, another with a succession
of penetrating ground strokes that left Murray
unable to recover. Verdasco held on for 3-3,
broke Murray in the following game, and never
looked back. He then upended 2008 Australian
Open finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in four hard
fought sets to earn his duel of southpaws with
Nadal.
Verdasco had only once taken a set off Nadal in
six previous meetings, but the world No. 1
realized he was taking on a player who had moved
to an entirely new and higher level. That was
apparent from the outset of this crackling
encounter. Nadal had two break points with
Verdasco serving at 5-5 in the opening set, but
was unable to convert. In the first set
tie-break, Nadal was ahead 3-1 but his
unwavering opponent collected six of the next
eight points to seal the set. Nadal struck back
ferociously to take the second and was twice up
a break in the third, building leads of 2-0 and
4-2 as Verdasco seemed to be wilting under the
assault.
And yet, the underdog found reserves of energy
and bursts of inspiration. He battled back to
force a tie-break, but in that sequence his ball
control deserted him and Nadal confidently
finished off that set with a blazing forehand
winner and an ace. At two sets to one, his
chances to run out the match seemed excellent.
Early in the fourth set, Verdasco looked as if
his body might finally betray him, but his serve
did not. Both players held to set up another
tie-break, and this time the inspired Verdasco
could do almost no wrong, blasting winner after
glorious winner off his big forehand, sweeping
into a fifth set with his bold play under
pressure.
All across the fifth set, Nadal was creating
opportunities for himself, but Verdasco kept
fending him off with unbridled yet controlled
aggression. Verdasco saved two set points at 0-1
in that fifth set, wiped away another at 2-3,
and cast aside two more at 3-4. Nadal was
uncommonly tight on the big points, too cautious
numerous times, burdened by wanting so badly to
win a match of this consequence against a player
he was expected to beat. At 4-4, Nadal fell
behind 0-30 and was six points from a bruising
defeat. Verdasco pulled a forehand wide on the
next point, missed a routine forehand return at
15-30, and that was all the leeway Nadal needed.
Nadal held on gamely for 5-4 with a high
forehand volley winner and a clean winner off
the forehand. In the tenth game, Verdasco double
faulted to fall behind 0-40, triple match point.
He rallied to 30-40, but then double faulted
again. Nadal--- despite being far below his
best--- had found a way to survive a spirited
performance from a worthy rival. That set up his
final round appointment with Federer, who had
wandered into dangerous territory himself in a
fourth round collision with Tomas Berdych,
dropping the first two sets of that clash before
recouping for a five set triumph.
Thereafter, Federer settled into a comfort zone,
dismantling Juan Martin Del Potro 6-3, 6-0, 6-0
in the quarters, and taking apart an overzealous
Andy Roddick 6-2, 7-5, 7-5 in the semifinals.
Federer did not lose his serve in either match.
Roddick had worn down Djokovic on a stifling day
in the heat after losing the first set in a
tie-break, as Djokovic surrendered when he was
down a break in the fourth. But Roddick--- the
man who held serve more successfully than anyone
else in the men’s game across 2008--- let
himself down badly by failing to reach a
tie-break in the second and third sets. In the
crunch, his serve was found wanting.
So Nadal and Federer squared off for the 19th
time in their illustrious rivalry. It was a
match of wildly fluctuating fortunes, featuring
many more service breaks than is customary in
this series between the Swiss maestro and the
Spanish gladiator. Nadal broke Federer no fewer
than 7 times in five sets, but Federer broke the
Spaniard six times. The number of breaks made
for a particularly compelling encounter, and
that pattern of unpredictability was apparent
from the outset.
In the opening set, Nadal broke his primary
rival in the opening game, lost his delivery
twice to trail 4-2, and then struck back boldly
to capture five of six games to seal the set by
breaking two more times. In the second set,
Nadal broke for 3-2 and seemed in command, but
an unwavering Federer secured four games in a
row to reach one set all.
The third set through the early stages of the
fourth was when both men played their highest
quality tennis of the match. Neither player
broke serve in the third, but Nadal faced some
trying moments late in the set. At 4-4, he was
down 0-40 but burst out of that corner with some
stupendous shot making and fine strategic
serving. At 5-5, he was behind 15-40 and faced
the music again. Now it was Federer’s turn to
escape, and he did just that by saving a set
point at 5-6 with an excellent first serve down
the T that Nadal could not keep in play. In the
ensuing tie-break, the two competitors were
locked at 3-3 when Federer misfired flagrantly
on an inside-out forehand off Nadal’s return
down the middle.
That mini-break propelled Nadal through the rest
of the tie-break. He nailed a forehand
crosscourt winner for 5-3, lunged to his right
for an excellent backhand volley winner into an
open court for 6-3, and then ran out the
sequence when Federer double faulted. Nadal was
back in command at two sets to one.
In the early stages of the fourth set, the
tennis was even more sublime. Nadal made it back
from 2-0 to 2-2 and then had five break points
in a pivotal fifth game. Had he broken there, he
might well have gone on to record a four set
victory, but Federer had other notions. He held
on bravely with a superb mixture of touch and
aggression. That hold--- so crucial to the Swiss
player’s fortunes--- hurt Nadal severely.
Federer glided to 5-2 and took the set
comfortably 6-3. On to a fifth set they went,
with the momentum seemingly on Federer’s side.
But Nadal realized what an advantage he had by
serving first in the fifth set. He buckled down
immediately. Remarkably, despite his exhausting
semifinal with Verdasco, despite four more
debilitating sets with Federer, despite
everything, Nadal regrouped once more and his
staying power was beyond dispute. The
22-year-old summoned all of his resources and
his serve was never better than when he needed
it most in the last set. He never gave Federer
any room for encouragement, winning 16 of 19
points on serve in that fifth set, holding twice
at love, once at 15, and once at 30.
Meanwhile, Nadal made only 3 unforced errors in
a set lasting 43 points. Conversely, Federer
lost his range completely, making 14 unprovoked
mistakes. Nadal cleverly exposed Federer’s
weakness on the high backhand with his heavy
topspin forehand crosscourt. In turn, Federer
lost confidence in his forehand and his footwork
was not up to par. My view is that Federer was
worn down by all the running he did across the
first four sets.
The truth is that Nadal worked Federer
inordinately hard, making him chase down an
awful lot of wide balls to the forehand, then
forcing the Swiss to scamper back to cover the
wide backhand. The combination of Nadal’s
penetrating inside-out forehand and his flat
two-hander crosscourt did a considerable amount
of damage. Federer
spent in the fifth set and Nadal exploited the
situation to the hilt, coming away with a 7-5,
3-6, 7-6 (3), 3-6, 6-2 triumph.
Nadal has now toppled Federer six times in eight
meetings at the majors altogether. Strictly in
the finals at Grand Slam events, Nadal has been
victorious five of seven times. To be sure, he
has beaten Federer three times in the finals of
Roland Garros on the red clay, and once more in
the semifinals of that event. But the fact
remains that Nadal has completed a three surface
sweep of Federer at the major events over the
last year, ruling on the clay in Paris, the
grass at Wimbledon, and the hard courts of
Australia. Nadal holds a 13-6 career lead over
Federer in their overall series. Considering
that so many of their duels have been on the
biggest occasions, Nadal’s head to head
superiority is no small thing.
As I look at the rest of 2009 and envision the
three upcoming majors, it is hard to image Nadal
not collecting a fifth consecutive French Open
crown. I believe Nadal, Federer and Murray all
have a serious chance to win Wimbledon, and the
same trio--- plus possibly Djokovic--- will be
in strong contention at the U.S. Open. I remain
almost certain that Murray will succeed in
either London or New York. Federer displayed
much grit and fortitude in bouncing back
emphatically after a distressing year to capture
his fifth straight U.S. Open. He salvaged his
season with that triumph.
It could well be even more arduous for Federer
to win a major in 2009. Murray has beaten him
five of the last six times they had met. Nadal
has his number. The likes of Tsonga, Verdasco
and a few others will be somewhere in the mix.
Nadal has never had this kind of start to a
year. He has a huge head start, and will be all
the more confident when he heads into the clay
court season. Murray is not discouraged after
Melbourne, but Federer might well be.
I am looking forward to the rest of 2009 because
the men’s game has seldom been more compelling.
2009 AUSTRALIAN OPEN PREVIEW - by Steve Flink
Now that the draw has just been
released, I am ready to make my
annual Australian Open forecast. The
chief point of curiosity with
respect to the men’s draw was where
Andy Murray would end up. Much to
Roger Federer’s delight, Murray----
the No. 4 seed--- fell into Rafael
Nadal’s section of the draw. Since
Federer has lost his last three
meetings with the fast rising
British player, and has been beaten
by Murray five of the last six times
they have clashed, he must have been
somewhat relieved to find out that
he would not have to deal with
Murray until a potential final round
collision.
The good news does not end there for
the three time Australian Open
victor. Federer opens with a
comfortable first round assignment
against the Italian Andreas Seppi.
He routinely handles Seppi, and this
time should be no different. In the
third round, Federer could
conceivably face 2005 champion Marat
Safin. Safin toppled Federer in an
epic semifinal that year, coming
through 9-7 in the fifth set after a
spectacular confrontation. Safin is
seeded No. 26 this year, and is
always a dangerously unpredictable
player. But even if he plays
reasonably well, Federer is simply
not going to lose to the Russian
this time around.
In the round of 16, Federer might
take on Swiss compatriot Stanislas
Wawrinka, or perhaps No. 20 seed
Tomas Berdych. Berdych could be
burdensome for Federer for a couple
of sets, but he lacks the match
playing acumen or consistency to do
more than take a set from the No. 2
seed. I fully expect the No. 8 seed
Del Potro to confront Federer in the
quarters. Del Potro might have to
avenge a Davis Cup loss he suffered
against the wily, left-handed
Feliciano Lopez in the third round,
but he should survive in four sets.
In the round of 16, either Marin
Cilic or David Ferrer could take on
Del Potro.
The guess here is that Cilic will be
the one Del Potro plays in that
round, and that could be quite a
skirmish. But I like Del Potro’s
more consistent and explosive ground
game and his superior match playing
temperament. Del Potro would advance
and meet Federer for a place in the
semifinals. Federer could have his
hands full from the back of the
court. Del Potro will push him hard
during the rallies, and send a
barrage of balls to his opponent’s
backhand side. But Federer’s serve
will be the determining factor in
the contest. He will come from
behind and win in a fourth set
tie-break.
The No. 7 seed Roddick opens against
a qualifier, and might have to play
the man who beat him at this
tournament a year ago--- Philipp
Kohlschreiber. I don’t see
lightening striking twice. If
Roddick plays the German this year
in the third round, he wins in four
sets. In the round of 16, Roddick
figures to meet old rival David
Nalbandian, the No. 10 seed.
Nalbandian will have some difficult
foes to overcome along the way,
including a tricky first round duel
with the Frenchman Marc Gicquel. But
I believe Nalbandian will muddle
through his section of the draw.
The Roddick-Nalbandian round of 16
clash would be a spirited encounter.
Roddick will need to attack
forcefully and persistently. From
the baseline, Nalbandian is the
markedly superior player. His
two-handed backhand is a much better
shot than Roddick’s, and he will
contain the American and prevent him
from penetrating too much off the
forehand. In the end, Roddick will
get the job done in five
exhilarating sets because his great
first serve and willingness to go
forward will give him the slightest
of edges.
That will set up an enticing
quarterfinal for Roddick against the
defending champion Novak Djokovic.
Djokovic opens against a qualifier
and could meet No. 28 seed
Paul-Henri Mathieu in the third
round. Djokovic just handled Mathieu
easily in Sydney, and will beat him
again if they meet in Melbourne. In
the round of 16, the Serbian figures
to play either Mardy Fish or Robin
Soderling. Fish played a respectable
final against Djokovic at Indian
Wells last year, and his attacking
game could bother his adversary for
a while. But Djokovic is too solid
from the baseline to lose a best of
five set match to Fish. He would
prevail in four sets, as he would
against the big hitting yet entirely
too erratic Soderling.
So, the way I see it, Djokovic and
Roddick will test each other for the
second straight time in a Grand Slam
event. At the U.S. Open last
September, Djokovic was obliterating
Roddick for two sets before the
American struck back boldly to
nearly take the match into a fifth
set in the quarters. Djokovic hung
on to win in a fourth set tie-break.
I envision a similarly hard fought
match in Melbourne. Roddick will
throw a big mixture at Djokovic from
start to finish, taking chances off
the forehand to end rallies early,
attempting some daring two-handed,
down the line backhands whenever
possible.
Djokovic will answer with his
customary depth, pace and precision
off the ground and he will have the
upper hand in the longer rallies.
Moreover, he will counter-attack
effectively when Roddick inevitably
moves forward. And yet, it will be a
gripping, pendulum-swinging battle.
Djokovic will come through, but he
will need the full five sets to
complete the job. That will take him
into a compelling showdown with
Federer as they stage a rematch of
their 2008 semifinal. Djokovic,
brimming with confidence after a
scintillating 2007 season, won that
encounter in straight sets after
Federer led 5-3,0-30 in the opening
set.
It seemed highly likely that
Djokovic would meet Federer over and
over again in 2008, but that was not
the case. Federer beat Djokovic in
Monte Carlo when Djokovic quit at a
set and a break down. Thereafter,
they played only one more time, with
Federer overcoming a subdued
Djokovic in four tough sets in the
semifinals of the U.S. Open.
Djokovic—clearly inhibited after
turning the fans against him with
some foolish post-match comments
after his win over Roddick--- was
apprehensive from the start, and
Federer played one of his better
matches of 2008 to prevail in four
sets.
In this contest, both men will like
their chances. Federer will be
determined to make it to the first
Grand Slam tournament final of 2009,
while Djokovic will have his heart
set on defending his crown and
defeating Federer again. The serving
efficiency of both men will be
critical. There will be at least one
and probably two tie-breaks. There
will be shifts in momentum. Federer
will try to control the climate of
the match with his inside-out
forehand, but Djokovic will counter
with the same tactic. Djokovic will
try as much as possible to make this
a duel between his two-handed
backhand and Federer’s one-handed
stroke off that side.
Ultimately, not much will separate
these two remarkable players, but
Federer will be more confident in
the tightest corners. He will recoup
from two sets to one down, win a
tie-break in the fourth set, and get
the win by taking the fifth set 6-4.
Nadal should have little trouble
until a potential round of 16
meeting with either Richard Gasquet
or 2007 Australian Open finalist
Fernando Gonzalez. Either way, Nadal
will advance without being stretched
to his limits, although Gasquet
could give him a tougher test. I see
Nadal beating Gasquet in four sets
or Gonzalez in straight sets. Nadal
thus will move on to the quarters.
In that round, he might meet No. 6
seed Gilles Simon, or perhaps play
No. 12 seed Gael Monfils. Those two
Frenchman have both had success over
Nadal. Monfils beat Nadal 6-4, 6-4
in Doha a few weeks ago, and Simon
stopped Nadal last autumn indoors in
Madrid in a magnificent battle that
went to a final set tie-break.
If Nadal faces Monfils, he will get
revenge in four hard sets, dropping
only the second. Should he play
Simon, Nadal will pull away after a
tight first set and win in straight
sets. So Nadal would then be in the
penultimate round. Murray,
meanwhile, would be on a collision
course with the Spaniard. Murray
confronts the soon-to-be 34-year-old
Andrei Pavel in the first round. He
could well face the capable
left-hander Jurgen Melzer in the
third round. At the U.S. Open last
year, Melzer nearly upset Murray
before bowing in five sets.
But Murray will be much better
prepared if they meet again in
Melbourne. He will get the victory
in straight sets. In the round of
16, Murray could play either Radek
Stepanek or Fernando Verdasco.
Stepanek does not have the
consistency to stay with Murray from
the baseline, and he will be forced
to take too many chances. The
left-handed Verdasco is a player
Murray can handle any time. His
explosive style plays well into
Murray’s hands. I see Murray
defeating either Verdasco or
Stepanek in straight sets.
In the quarters, Murray might have
to take on 2008 finalist Jo-Wilfried
Tsonga, but the No. 5 seed Tsonga
recently hurt his back and it is
hard to know how close to the top of
his game he will be. Other potential
quarterfinal opponents for Murray
are James Blake or Igor Andreev.
Either of those players----
particularly Blake--- could get hot
for one set, but Murray has too much
versatility for both men and he will
advance to the semifinals and an
eagerly awaited battle with Nadal.
Nadal had never lost to Murray until
the U.S. Open, but Murray won there
for the first time in six career
head-to-head contests. Recently, he
beat Nadal in the final of an
exhibition event. Nadal, however,
will be fully charged emotionally
for a match of this consequence. He
will work Murray hard from the
baseline, but Murray will counter
with well executed risk taking and
some timely winners. His first serve
will keep Nadal largely at bay, but
then again Nadal’s wide swinging
lefty slice will cause Murray
numerous problems as well.
This is an awfully difficult match
to predict. In the end, I believe it
will go right down to the wire.
Nadal will be down two sets to one,
but then will capture the fourth set
and go up a break at 4-2 in the
fifth. But Murray will make his move
and gain a thrilling victory 9-7 in
the fifth and final set.
Fortunately for Murray, he will have
at least one and possibly two days
off after that exhausting piece of
business. He will need it, because
Federer will be in a quietly
ferocious mood to make amends for
his recent string of losses to
Murray. He will need to call on all
of his big match experience as he
tries to tie Pete Sampras’s record
of 14 Grand Slam titles. Federer
will give it his absolute all,
fighting back from a set and a break
down and moving ahead two sets to
one. But Murray will not be swayed.
He will not lose his serve in the
last two sets, and Federer will
gradually lose his range off the
forehand. Murray will win his first
major title, stopping Federer in an
excellent final 6-4, 5-7, 5-7, 6-4,
6-3.
As for the women, top seeded Jelena
Jankovic will move through the early
rounds not with ease but with enough
confidence to prevail. She could
play Ai Sugiyama in the third round,
Sybille Bammer in the round of 16
and conceivably Vera Zvonareva (the
No. 7 seed) in the quarters.
Jankovic will be ready for those
meetings and will topple Zvonareva
in three rigorous sets to make it to
the semifinal round. Waiting for her
there will be a woman who has given
her all kinds of problems over the
last year. I am referring to No. 3
seed Dinara Safina. Safina could
have a tough round of 16 collision
with Alize Cornet, but the will
survive in three sets after dropping
the first.
I see Caroline Wozniacki of Denmark
taking on Safina in the
quarterfinals. No. 5 seed Ana
Ivanovic has been so unsettled as of
late that I can’t see her going too
far. Wozniacki will beat Ivanovic in
the fourth round in straight sets.
But Safina will find a way to upend
Wozniacki in a three set
quarterfinal. Safina will fully
expect to beat Jankovic in the
semifinals, but the Serbian—coming
off a final round appearance in her
last Grand slam event at the U.S.
Open--- will use her remarkable
ground stroke variety and wonderful
ball control to wear down Safina.
Jankovic will win that one 4-6, 7-5,
6-2 and make it into another major
final.
No. 2 seed Serena Williams will
gradually get her bearings. She will
play Francesca Schiavone in the
third round, Victoria Azarenka in
the round of 16 and a surprise
opponent in the quarterfinals. I
don’t believe No. 8 seed Svetlana
Kuznetsova will make it to the last
eight. Although Serena will not be
at her best, she will still make it
through to the semifinals. In that
round, it will be Elena Dementieva
standing across the net from her.
Dementieva--- the No. 4 seed--- will
have beaten No. 30 seed Aleksandra
Wozniak of Canada in the third round
and Patty Schnyder in the round of
16. On the quarters, the Russian
will have quite a battle on her
hands.
No. 6 seed Venus Williams--- having
overcome rough opposition against
Tamarine Tanasugarn in the third
round in a three set match--- will
then barely escape defeat against
the Italian Flavia Penetta, the
woman who beat her at the French
Open last year. But Venus will get
out of that clash 7-5 in the final
set. Then she will face Dementieva,
and this will be a bruising battle
under the sun. Venus will win the
first set and come close to a
straight set victory, but Dementieva
will strike back confidently and
pull off a 4-6, 7-5, 6-3
quarterfinal victory.
And so it will be Dementieva against
Serena Williams in the semifinals.
Dementieva just beat Serena handily
in the semifinals of Sydney, but
this will be a much closer showdown.
Serena will be looking to serve the
Russian wide to the forehand in the
deuce court, and will release some
thunderous deliveries down the T in
the advantage court. That first
serve will keep Serena in the match
and nearly win it for her, but in
the end Dementieva will win because
her ground game is much more
dependable than Serena’s. That
backcourt consistency will allow
Dementieva to prevail 7-5, 3-6, 7-5
in the match of the tournament.
Serena will squander a 5-3 lead in
the third set.
That will set the stage for either
Dementieva or Jankovic to win a
first career Grand Slam crown.
Dementieva will set the pace early
on, using the weight of her shots to
open up the court and force errors
from Jankovic. Dementieva will serve
for the first set, but Jankovic will
respond ably under pressure. She
will take that set in a tie-break
and then gradually get control of
the match. Jankovic will change pace
and trajectories. She will roll her
forehand deep and use her two-hander
to create acute angles. In the
battle of two-handers crosscourt,
Jankovic will have the upper hand.
Jankovic will sense her big chance,
and reach out and take it. She will
beat Dementieva 7-6 (5), 6-4 and
prove why she finished 2008 as the
top ranked player in the world. She
will be a worthy winner.