2010 Australian Open Preview - by Steve Flink
And so a new season is upon us, and
the first major of the year will
start soon in Melbourne. It shapes
up as one of the most intriguing and
unpredictable Grand Slam events in
quite a long while. Let’s start with
the men’s draw, which is fascinating
in many ways. On the top half of the
draw, top seeded Roger Federer has
his work cut out for him.
Federer will struggle to keep his
astonishing streak of consistency
alive at the premier events. Federer
has reached 22 semifinals in a row
on the Grand Slam stages, but this
might be his most challenging test
at a “Big Four” event in ages. He
opens against the tenacious Russian
Igor Andreev, the Russian baseliner
who pushed him to five arduous sets
in the third round of the U.S. Open
in 2008. He should win more easily
against Andreev this time around.
Andreev drifted from No. 19 in the
world at the end of 2008 to No. 35
at the conclusion of 2009 and is not
playing with the same confidence he
had when he met Federer in New York
in that memorable five set
appointment. Federer will win in
four sets, but a sterner examination
could come for him in the round of
16 against either the No. 15 seed
Gilles Simon or 2005 Australian Open
finalist and two time Grand Slam
tournament winner Lleyton Hewitt.
The Simon-Hewitt match could go
either way, but I give Hewitt a
slight edge, and look for him to
take on Federer in the round of 16.
At the U.S. Open in 2009, Hewitt
took the first set from Federer and
had chances thereafter, but he bowed
out in four sets. Should they clash
in Melbourne--- and I expect that
they will--- the atmosphere will be
highly charged, and Hewitt will
throw his heart and soul into that
contest. He will be near the top of
his game, and will make Federer work
inordinately hard from the back of
the court. Hewitt won’t be afraid to
go frequently to the Federer
forehand, using his backhand down
the line to make the Swiss stretch,
keeping his shots deep and luring
the world No. 1 into mistakes.
The guess here is that Hewitt will
build a two sets to one lead, but
Federer will fight back with quiet
ferocity and will eventually prevail
in five sets for a place in the
quarterfinals. Waiting for him there
will be either Nikolay Davydenko---
the No. 6 seed--- or 2009 Australian
Open semifinalist Fernando Verdasco.
On current form, I like Davydenko’s
chances. His recent record has been
nothing less than stellar. He won
Shanghai and the Barclays ATP World
Finals in London late in 2009, then
opened 2010 with a triumph on the
hard courts of Brisbane, toppling
Federer and Rafael Nadal in the last
two rounds of that event.
Clearly, Davydenko is the hottest
player in the world, but can he make
something substantial happen in a
best of five set format over the
course of two weeks at a Grand Slam
event? He has now ousted Federer two
times in a row after losing his
first 12 career confrontations
against his old rival. Surely,
Federer will be out to reverse that
pattern and will be more motivated
for this quarterfinal contest.
But Davydenko has a new mindset now,
and he will no longer be daunted by
the 15 time Grand Slam tournament
champion. They will split the first
two sets as Davydenko exploits his
outstanding footwork and his
improved ball striking off the
forehand side. He will beat Federer
to the punch in the backhand to
backhand rallies. His serve will
hold up well enough. In a
scintillating display, Davydenko
will win a pair of tie-breaks to
knock Federer out of the tournament
in four sets. It will be his biggest
win ever at a major tournament. That
will take Davydenko into the
semifinals.
His opponent will be Novak Djokovic,
the No. 3 seed and 2008 champion.
Djokovic will move confidently into
the quarterfinals with a win over
No. 16 seed Tommy Robredo, and then
he will fight his way past No. 8
seed Robin Soderling in four well
played sets. The greater ground
stroke consistency of Djokovic and
the Serbian’s superior return of
serve will carry him into the
semifinals with a four set triumph,
and he will then meet Davydenko.
As was the case the last two times
they played--- when they split
indoor matches against each other---
this will be a bruising battle.
Neither player will find a glaring
weakness in the other player’s game.
From time to time, Djokovic will get
shaky off the forehand;
periodically, Davydenko’s forehand
will be off the mark. But they will
keep probing and the points will be
long and demanding. Davydenko will
win the first set, Djokovic will
take the next two, and the Russian
will rally to win the fourth set. In
the fifth, Djokovic will get one
crucial break at 4-4 in the fifth
set, and will serve out the match
for a well deserved victory. That
will put him into his second
Australian Open final.
On the opposite half of the draw,
the defending champion Nadal will be
striving to play his best tennis
since the spring of 2009. Nadal won
the first set of the Brisbane final
from Davydenko 6-0, and had two
match points in a second set
tie-break before losing in three
pendulum swinging sets. In
Melbourne, he will meet the big
serving American John Isner in the
third round. It will take Nadal a
set to find his range on his
returns, but he will gradually pick
Isner apart with dipping shots at
the big man’s feet and some
trademark passing shots off both
sides.
Nadal will stop Isner in four sets,
and will then meet No. 13 seed Radek
Stepanek for a place in the
quarterfinals. Stepanek will have
beaten Ivo Karlovic in a blockbuster
first round, four set encounter, but
he will not be able to stay with
Nadal despite trying to apply
pressure continuously. Nadal will
defeat Stepanek in straight sets,
and will then take on Andy Murray in
the most eagerly awaited of all the
quarterfinals.
Murray will be match tough after
beating Jurgen Melzer and Gael
Monfils in four set showdowns. The
Nadal-Murray match will be a beauty.
Murray will be more aggressive than
normal, realizing that good defense
is not going to cut it against
Nadal. Murray will take chances off
his forehand, and will take his
two-hander up the line as often as
possible. He will serve big and look
to win some quick points against the
six time major champion. For his
part, Nadal will be unerring, and he
will keep Murray honest by sending
his first serve out wide to the
forehand just often enough to keep
the British player off balance. This
will be a top of the line contest,
and not that much will separate the
two great players. In the end,
however, Nadal will wear Murray down
and his growing self conviction,
better ball control and poise under
pressure will be all that he needs
to record a 7-6 (5), 5-7, 7-5, 7-6
(3) victory. Nadal will be in the
semifinals with that win.
His opponent will presumably be U.S.
Open champion Juan Martin Del Potro.
Del Potro will survive a strenuous
round of 16 meeting with Marin Cilic,
but he will win that in five sets.
In the quarters, it will be Del
Potro against none other than Andy
Roddick, who will beat 2007 finalist
Fernando Gonzalez in the round of
16. Roddick will play a whale of a
match against Del Potro, but will
come up narrowly short of victory.
Del Potro scraped by Roddick twice
last summer on hard courts, and he
will win another very tight battle
this time around in five sets.
And so Del Potro--- who crushed
Nadal twice last summer in Canada
and New York--- will look to stop
the Spaniard again with his big
hitting from the baseline and his
markedly improved first serve. His
explosive style will be too good at
the outset as the Argentine will
blow Nadal off the court in a 6-3
first set. Both players will sense
the importance of the second set,
which will be beautifully played
across the board. Nadal will impose
himself more and more off the
forehand, forcing Del Potro deep and
wide to his opponent’s backhand,
keeping him trapped too far behind
the baseline.
Nadal will capture the second set in
a tie-break, and thereafter his
physicality will be too much for Del
Potro. Nadal will get into a vicious
ground stroke rhythm, and his
relentless consistency will grind
down Del Potro 3-6, 7-6 (5), 6-4,
7-5. He will be back in the final,
and he will take on Djokovic. That
one will come down largely to
stamina, willpower, big point
prowess, and heart. Djokovic will be
on top of the world and in command
of his game as he wins the first set
6-4, and he will build a 4-2 second
set lead by keeping the points
relatively short and not allowing
Nadal much room to breathe. Djokovic
will be lethal on his second serve
returns, and will keep Nadal on the
run by taking the ball early off the
forehand.
But, in the crunch, Nadal will come
through. He will persist with his
heavy topspin forehand crosscourt
until Djokovic’s normally
trustworthy two-handed backhand
finally starts to crack. Nadal will
get the second set 7-5, and will win
the third by 6-3. He will be within
one set of a second Australian Open
crown in a row, but Djokovic will
not surrender. He will rediscover
his rhythm, getting better depth off
the forehand, finding some acute
angles off the backhand. Djokovic
will pick up his first serve
percentage and win the fourth set
6-4.
So it will all come down to a fifth
set after more than four hours of
play. Djokovic will demonstrate that
he is admirably fit, maybe fitter
than he has ever been before. But
Nadal will be on a crusade to win no
matter what it takes. He will be
down a break at 1-3 in the fifth,
but will collect five of the last
six games to win 4-6, 7-5, 6-3, 4-6,
6-4 in five hours. Rafael Nadal will
be back where he wants to be,
winning his first tournament since
May, gaining a seventh major title,
playing his most inspired brand of
tennis.
Among the women, Serena Williams
will confront Sam Stosur in the
round of 16, and the Australian fans
will like the outset of that match.
Stosur will be attacking skillfully,
serving-and-volleying persistently,
and keeping Serena at bay. Stosur
will win that set 7-5, but Williams
will not be thrown off stride and
will gradually get her bearings and
assert herself with controlled
aggression from the baseline. She
will win 5-7, 6-4, 6-2 to reach the
quarterfinals. In the last eight,
her opponent will be the rapidly
rising Victoria Azarenka, the No. 7
seed who seemed on her way to a win
over Serena before getting sick and
losing in three sets to the American
a year ago. Azarenka--- grunting
loud, hitting the ball hard and
flat, competing with unbridled
intensity--- will make a real go of
it in the opening set, but Williams
will prevail in a tie-break and move
on to a straight set victory by
scores of 7-6 (6), 6-4. In the
semifinals, I expect to see No. 4
seed Caroline Wozniacki play
Williams.
Wozniacki will have potential
meetings with Shahar Peer and Li Na
to make it to the quarterfinals. In
the last eight, she figures to play
Venus Williams. Venus will come very
close to winning, serving
prodigiously for a set-and a-half to
get within striking distance of a
clear-cut victory, but Wozniacki
will overtake Venus with her
smoothly delivered ground strokes
and her supreme accuracy. Wozniacki
will stop Venus Williams in three
sets, coming from behind for a 3-6,
7-5, 6-4 victory. But against Serena
Williams, the story will be
different. Serena will cut her down
systematically. She will be in one
of her unmistakably big match moods,
bearing down hard, keeping her error
count down, serving well under
pressure. Serena Williams will win
the match 7-5, 6-4, and thus arrive
safely for the final. In the
championship match, she will face
No. 15 seed Kim Clijsters or 2004
champion Justine Henin.
Henin has not played a major since
the 2008 Australian Open, but the
seven time major tournament victor
will knock out No. 5 seed Elena
Dementieva in a terrific second
round match. Dementieva will be too
solid for Henin for a set, but then
the Belgian will start opening up
the court with her sharply angled
two-handed backhand, and she will
attack her second serve returns with
regularity. Henin will sweep past
Dementieva in the last two sets,
prevailing 4-6, 6-4, 6-1. She will
later dismiss No. 18 seed Virginie
Razzano in the fourth round, and
will meet countrywoman Clijsters in
a stirring quarterfinal.
In the final of Brisbane at the
start of this season, Clijsters
overcame Henin in a thrilling battle
that came down to a final set
tie-break. Henin had two match
points in the tenth game of the
final set after recovering from a
set and 4-1 down. It was an amazing
match, played at a remarkably high
level all the way through, and it
could have gone either way. In
Melbourne, they will have another
strikingly close contest, and this
time Henin will be the winner.
Clijsters will be sharper in the
beginning and will win the first set
7-5, but Henin will steady herself,
stop double faulting as often as she
did on big points in Brisbane, and
her superior backcourt variety will
make a big difference as she finds a
way to thwart Clijsters. Henin will
come through 5-7, 6-4, 6-4, and she
will be in the semifinals. Waiting
for her there will be Maria
Sharapova.
Sharapova--- the 2008 Australian
Open champion--- is seeded 14th this
year but she will be ready to go
from the beginning. She will beat
Jelena Jankovic in the quarterfinals
(No. 2 seed Dinara Safina will bow
out early) and will then take on
Henin in the penultimate round. This
will be one of their finest
contests. Sharapova will serve with
great accuracy and her location will
be excellent. Henin will counter
with her customary low and biting
returns, and she will take control
of the rallies. The power of
Sharapova will be answered by the
purposeful play of Henin, who will
cover the court considerably better
than her opponent. In the end, Henin
will narrowly move past Sharapova,
winning 4-6, 7-6 (3),6-4.
That will give us a dream final
between Henin--- the former world
No. 1 who has always been the
ultimate professional--- and Serena
Williams, the best big match player
in the women’s game. Henin will be
fortunate in the early stages as an
overanxious Serena self destructs
under an avalanche of unforced
errors, making wild mistakes off
both sides. But the steely resolve
of Williams will kick in, and she
will pick up the quality of her
serving and reduce her mistakes
significantly to take the second set
6-4. The third and final set will
feature both women at their best.
Serena will release a barrage of
scorching forehand winners while
Henin will color the court with her
spectacular one-handed topspin
backhand. The quality of the tennis
will be awe inspiring for the fans.
Henin will take a 4-1 final set lead
with two service breaks in hand, but
Williams will storm back to reach
4-4. They will stay on serve until
8-8, when Henin will break Williams
with a blazing backhand down the
line winner on the run at full
stretch. Henin will serve out the
match and win 1-6, 6-4, 10-8 for her
most dramatic victory ever in a
final at a major. It will be the
best major final among the women
since 2005 at Wimbledon, when Venus
Williams saved a match point and
defeated Lindsay Davenport 4-6 7-6
(4) 9-7.